Trouver l'équilibre en Ontario : L'approche du premier ministre Ford face aux élections fédérales

The dog days of summer are here. For Ontarians, this means cottage weekends, city traffic, and an endless search for air conditioning. Politically, it’s a much slower time of year, with the Legislature on summer recess and elected officials spending time in their riding—or taking some much-needed time off.

However, this summer should be anything but idle.

With rumours swirling that a provincial election will be called early and in advance of the federal election scheduled to take place in October 2025, the upcoming fall provincial legislative session will be critical. Organizations have the unique opportunity to be first out of the gate with a pre-election plan to influence policy and secure a seat at the decision-making table.

Why call an early election?

There are many reasons why an early election might be appealing to the Premier. Ontario Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to remain popular amongst voters, especially in the absence of formidable competition. Current polling suggests that Ford enjoys robust support, positioning him and his government well.

Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberal Party is polling stronger than the Official Opposition, the New Democratic Party of Ontario (NDP). The new Ontario Liberal Leader, Bonnie Crombie, has continued to find success in fundraising and building up a base of fresh candidates. It would be advantageous for Premier Ford to call an election earlier rather than later considering her momentum.

Additionally, the possible implications of balance theory could impact Ford's provincial success. Since 1943, balance theory has been a cornerstone of Ontario's political landscape. It suggests that Ontario voters tend to select different parties to govern at Queen's Park and in Ottawa simultaneously. This historical trend has maintained a political equilibrium that reflects the diverse priorities and preferences of Ontario's electorate.

Premier Doug Ford and his team are keenly aware of the implications of balance theory and are inclined to maintain their supermajority in the Ontario Legislature as political experts anticipate a federal shift in power after the 2025 election.

The road to 2025: Policy and spending

Likely in preparation for a potential spring election, Premier Ford has recently shuffled his cabinet and shortened the fall legislative session. This move allows his government to focus on touring the province, unveiling new programs, policies, and investments designed to appeal to both the Progressive Conservative base and a broader electorate.

Premier Ford and his team will focus on "getting it done" through the fall legislative session. Specifically, cabinet and caucus will work to advance the files that matter most to Ontarians, especially if the Premier calls an early election.

This is likely to prioritize:

• Healthcare investments
• Infrastructure investments
• Tackling affordability concerns
• Addressing development challenges

What does this mean for your organization?

For organizations, the fall legislative session and the possible 2025 provincial election cycle represent a critical window of opportunity. Elections bring heightened attention to policy issues and open doors for advocacy and influence. To capitalize on this, it is essential to be proactive and strategic.

An organization may consider:

1. Early engagement: By meeting with policymakers early on, organizations have a better chance of influencing policy and potential platforms before they’re created. Organizations should identify key issues relevant to their cause and align them with the priorities of ministers and the Premier. Crafting well-researched and compelling policy recommendations can help accelerate your police agenda.
2. Building relationships: Government officials are more likely to collaborate with trusted stakeholders. Establishing and nurturing relationships with key decision-makers can position your organization as a valuable partner in the policy-making process. It can also be beneficial to think beyond the governing party and consider a multipartisan approach to building relationships. Governments can change, and preparing for any election outcome is in your best interest.
3. Leveraging the public service: The public service plays a crucial role in keeping files and policies moving during and beyond an election, which is especially important if the governing party changes. Engaging with public servants can ensure continuity and sustained attention to your issues. Building strong relationships with key public service officials can help maintain momentum for your policy initiatives, regardless of the election outcome.

2025 could prove to be a pivotal moment for Ontario and Canada. For Premier Doug Ford, it is an opportunity to reinforce his party's dominance. For organizations, it is a chance to influence party policy and secure a voice in the political discourse.

Navigating the complexities of an election year can be challenging. By being proactive, building relationships, and making strategic recommendations, you can ensure that your organizationis a key player in shaping the future of Ontario.

For more information on developing an effective government relations strategy, contact NATIONAL’s team of Public Affairs experts.