Doug Ford, premier ministre de l'Ontario, appelle à des élections anticipées le 27 février : pourquoi maintenant et quelle sera la suite?

Today, the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario, the Honourable Edith Dumont, accepted Premier Ford’s request to dissolve the 43rd Parliament of the Province of Ontario. This decision sets the stage for an early provincial election to be held on February 27, 2025—a move that has confirmed rumours we’ve been hearing for months. This early election call has sparked widespread discussion about its timing and implications.

Premier Ford is strategically positioning himself to secure another four-year mandate while his approval ratings remain strong. By opting for an early election rather than waiting until 2026, he aims to capitalize on current political momentum and public support.

A snap election raises important questions:

• Why now?
• What will the next 29 days look like?
• And what does this mean for your business or organization?

Why now?

There are many reasons why an early election felt like the right choice for Premier Ford, including:

• Favourable polling: Ontario Progressive Conservatives (PC) have remained popular amongst Ontario voters, particularly in the absence of formidable competition. Recent polling numbers have shown that the Premier enjoys robust support, positioning him and his government well over the shortened election period.
• New Democratic Party (NDP) trailing behind Liberals: Ontario Liberals are polling stronger than the Official Opposition, the Ontario NDP, which will likely create further division among voters supporting either party. Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has also been building up steam and the Premier is aiming to stifle her momentum to retain his majority government. This could come at the cost of creating opportunity for her Liberals to reestablish party status and potentially form the Official Opposition.
• Federal election: The balance theory which has been a cornerstone of Ontario's political landscape, suggests that Ontario voters tend to select different parties to govern at Queen's Park and in Ottawa simultaneously, thereby maintaining a political equilibrium. With political insiders anticipating a Conservative shift during the upcoming federal election, the Premier likely sees now as his best shot at retaining power before the Ontario electorate begins to shift the other way.
• Trump’s tariff threat: Potential tariffs being imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump pose a real risk for Ontario, and the Premier believes a stronger mandate from the Ontario electorate is necessary for his government to step up with retaliatory measures in lockstep with the federal government. If Ford can secure another four-year mandate, he will serve as Premier of Ontario for President Trump’s full four-year term.

What will the next 29 days look like?

1. The election campaign period officially begins tomorrow with each party likely to unveil their party platform in the coming days. PCs will likely focus on safeguarding Ontario’s economy through retaliatory tariff measures, infrastructure investment and red tape reduction whereas the Liberals and to an extent the NDP will likely focus on healthcare investment and pocketbook policies, both of which were more of a focus for the Premier during the previous election.

2. Local candidate nominations will be finalized in the coming days across various ridings and campaign offices will open their doors to mobilize volunteers and engage with voters. Ahead of the Family Day long weekend, we will also see** advance polling begin** with the party’s working to get their identified voters out to cast their vote.

3. Leader debates will begin to be scheduled as early as next week and it will be up to the Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner to avoid attacking each other and focus on challenging PC Leader Doug Ford and his government, which is something each party failed to avoid during the previous election.

4. Premier Ford is still planning to visit Washington, D.C. in February for tariff negotiations in his capacity as premier alongside other Canadian premiers while also campaigning as leader of the PCs, which could put him at an advantage with voters focused on the tariff issue.

What does this mean for your business or organization?

An early election in Ontario presents unique challenges and opportunities for businesses and organizations interested in engaging with government. During this period, government enters “caretaker mode” during which access to ministers and members of provincial Parliament (MPPs) is limited as they focus on re-election efforts and bureaucrats are unlikely to move forward with major policy decisions. Ultimately, substantive policy discussions and government decision-making must wait until after the election.

Despite these challenges, there are valuable opportunities to capitalize on:

• Monitoring party platforms can help you understand their priorities and identify those that align with your business objectives.
• Keeping an eye on campaign developments and leading candidates can lay groundwork for future engagements.
• Developing strategic plans built on insights and intel gleaned throughout the election period will prepare your organization for effective post-election advocacy.
• Being prepared to activate immediately after the election can enable your organization to hit the ground running.

Elections offer invaluable opportunities for observation, relationship-building, and strategic planning that can benefit your organization in the long run. Maintaining neutrality is crucial when interacting with political figures during this time.

How can we help?

NATIONAL Toronto’s team of Public Affairs experts are here to help. We will be sharing timely insights and updates as the campaign period takes shape to help your organization navigate the snap election and its potential impact on your industry as well as the multitude of opportunities that will come during and after. Stay tuned for detailed analysis to follow.