Two debates down and one week to go until election day: Here’s a recap of the Ontario election campaign

A Family Day long weekend that saw record snowfall numbers, also featured two Ontario leaders' debates, the first focused on Northern Ontario, and the second being the primary debate which was televised across the province. With most Ontarians likely to have stayed indoors to contend with the severe weather, the televised debate on Family Day provided intriguing dialogue between the four provincial party leaders currently vying to become the Premier of Ontario.

What was each party focused on?

Incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford was calculated, largely sticking to his speaking points during both debates whereas Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Leader Mike Schreiner were all on the offensive, pointing to the Premier’s perceived shortcomings while he touted his government’s accomplishments over the last term.

Each party leader had their say on what they believe to be the top issue Ontarians are concerned with going into the February 27th election.

• Doug Ford: Protecting Ontario by combatting the tariff threat from the US and strengthening Ontario’s economy.
• Marit Stiles: Making life more affordable for Ontarians.
• Bonnie Crombie: Addressing Ontario’s everlasting healthcare crisis.
• Mike Shreiner: A bit of everything, including a commitment not to abandon his job like the Premier did by calling an early election.

Who won? Who lost?

In many ways, Ford seemingly felt detached from the debates, probably due to the strong likelihood of his party being re-elected with a supermajority. On the contrary, all three of his opponents were very much in lockstep in their attacks against the Premier and his incumbent government, strongly indicating they’re in fact fighting for second place.

Doug Ford: With this election really being his to lose, Ford has had his work cut out for him. His strategy to stay close to his protect Ontario, economy-first platform is working. Each of his opponents have inevitably begun to sound similar when challenging Ford, but vastly different when arguing against each other. This is likely to divide non-conservative voters.

Bonnie Crombie: Bonnie was assertive throughout the debates and was able to get under Doug Ford’s skin on several key issues. On healthcare, she doubled down on the impending need to address the shortage of family doctors. She further dubbed the government efforts a failure and ridiculed the government’s decision to “hire a liberal,” former federal health minister Dr. Jane Philpott, to reform the system. On affordability, she called out Ford for his failure to deliver on his promise to bring forward a middle-class tax cut. For what it’s worth, Bonnie Crombie has strengthened her party’s position to challenge for Official Opposition which would also see them regaining official party status in Ontario.

Marit Stiles: Stiles had a composed demeanour throughout the debates but sometimes failed to provide short, succinct responses, particularly during some of the charged moments between Ford and Crombie. She did, however, get across her party’s plans to address affordability from a housing perspective by reintroducing rent controls to establishing a dedicated housing development department. All in all, Marit Stiles missed her opportunity to build on her party’s momentum from the previous election which could cost them dearly.

Mike Schreiner: As expected, Shreiner provided some intriguing moments throughout the debates. From questioning the rationale and benefit of the government’s $2.2 billion Ontario Place deal to his party being the only one of the four to have put forward a fully costed platform, Shreiner brought his A-game. Though, it is quite challenging to see his impact on voters as his party remains well-behind all other parties in every aspect.

What now?

There is little doubt that Premier Ford is in the driver’s seat as recent polling suggests another majority win for his Progressive Conservatives. Opting for an early election has enabled Ford to capitalize on current geopolitical circumstances and it is likely that we’ll see the incumbent government return for an unprecedented third term. We are now one week away from election day and each party along with their candidates will be busy door knocking on the campaign trail.

For the NDP, this election has proven to be quite challenging with polling averages placing them at 18 per cent of the popular vote versus the Liberals having gained momentum as of late at 28 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives leading the way with a whopping 44 per cent.

The NDP is vulnerable in southwestern and northern Ontario, the first being where Doug Ford kicked off his campaign and has continued to spend considerable time in. For the Progressive Conservatives to secure an even stronger mandate from voters, they will need to convert orange seats to blue, and these are the two areas where Ford has focused his efforts. Ford has also seemingly won over blue-collar voters with major union endorsements ringing through during the campaign which significantly hurts the NDP.

For the Liberals, this election is proving to be a comeback of sorts, with Bonnie Crombie having surpassed Stiles in popularity both individually and between the parties. Crombie has now begun her appeal to NDP voters, positioning herself as the frontrunner alternative to Doug Ford. For the Liberals, it will be critical to shift more Toronto voters from orange to red, as 9 of the 22 seats are currently held by the NDP whereas only 4 of them are held by the Liberals. Though, it is important to remember that nothing is truly guaranteed until Ontarians get out to vote and elect a government that they believe is primed to navigate the next four years for the province.

Advance voting will be taking place from February 20 to 22, while the election day is set for February 27. More details are available on Elections Ontario’s website.

Looking ahead

Elections offer a fresh start for organizations interested in engaging government. Following the election, the elected party will begin to form its governing structure, beginning with throne speech and the appointment of cabinet ministers to oversee each dedicated ministry. Like we have with the previous two governments, we may see the amalgamation of existing ministries or introduction of new ministries to address key issues that the government believes are a priority.

Following this period, organizations are well positioned to begin building meaningful relationships by bringing forward new strategic thinking that can help the government of the day bring forward meaningful policies and programs.

NATIONAL Toronto’s team of Public Affairs experts are here to help. We are here to guide you through the multitude of opportunities that will come following the election.