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Offering his analysis is Kevin Macintosh, Senior Vice-President in our Ottawa office and a constitutional law scholar holding an LLM from Osgoode Hall Law School. While polls currently show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, here are 10 factors Macintosh believes may give Trump an edge as election day approaches:
- The economy may be getting better, but people aren’t feeling it. While the Biden years were saddled by the global pandemic and inflation, in comparison, the Trump-era economy was largely trouble-free.
- More Americans, than not, believe that the southern border is far too porous, and that Trump is the best bet to get it under control.
- The world seems increasingly unsafe. There were no wars that the U.S. was involved in during Trump’s four years, save for wins against ISIS and others in the ongoing war on terror. Trump boldly infers that the world’s tyrants and dictators won’t mess with him. While it is classic Trumpian hyperbole, there is evidence that he may have a point.
- Young black men and Hispanics have been moving to Trump in unprecedented numbers. Barack Obama counted on the support of 81% of young black men when he was first elected. The latest polls show Harris can count on half that number.
- The Democrats used to be the “party of the people”, which in large measure meant the working class. Republicans, under Trump, have supplanted the Dems as the party sticking up for hard-working Americans.
- Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were up 7-10 points on Trump at this time in 2016 and 2020. Harris is up by 2 points with less than three weeks to go. While this is simply a hunch… my gut says there is a percentage of voters not telling pollsters they will actually be voting for Trump.
- When asked on The View if she would do anything differently from the Biden years, Harris said she couldn’t think of anything. The problem is, most Dems and Republicans see this as a change election. Harris was seriously off-message then but corrected her answer during her interview with Fox News.
- Trump has made unexpected gains in union support compared to his previous campaigns.
- The U.S. cherishes capitalism and free enterprise. These are not the first words that come to mind when thinking of Harris.
- Last, but not least, Harris and her campaign mantra, “I’m from a middle-class family” has now been parodied on Saturday Night Live. Did writers just turn the corner to convey what people on the street are beginning to think and say?
This is only one political observer’s opinion on where things may sit three weeks out. I need to also say, I am neither a Harris nor Trump booster. I have regularly argued that the political polarization of the last several years is stoked by both the left and the right. Unfortunately, looking at this election, it is hard to see any end in sight.
