If the months ahead could be described as a high stakes game of political chess, then perhaps the opening move was the Jagmeet Gambit—last week’s decision by New Democratic Party (NDP) Leader Jagmeet Singh to gain distance from the Liberals by ending the Confidence and Supply agreement. This strategic move had the dual impact of reintroducing the instability typical of minority government while shifting the political dynamics at play.
With the House of Commons set to resume on September 16th, members of Parliament are embroiled in caucus meetings during the final days of the lengthy summer recess, where each party is discussing its political strategies and legislative priorities for the remainder of the year.
What are the fall priorities of each political party?
For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the upcoming byelections will be another litmus test for the minority Liberals, and more specifically his leadership. Emerging from summer months of directly engaging Canadians, the Prime Minister kept both his cabinet and priorities unchanged surrounding the annual cabinet retreat.
The recent resignation of Jeremy Broadhurst, national campaign director for the Liberals, is concerning for the Liberals on the eve of September 16 by-elections. Having so far resisted calls for a leadership change, if there was to be a final moment that the Prime Minister may consider stepping aside, it would be in the wake of the byelections, should the Liberals lose yet another longstanding riding.
For the Liberals, the unfinished business of its mandate has become a long laundry list of complex policy and legislative initiatives, ranging from finalizing the Clean Electricity Regulations, the package of clean energy and technology Investment Tax Credits, to new commitments—scaling back the Temporary Foreign Workers program, considering further immigration policy changes, new trade tariffs on Chinese-made products, and launching the new Canada Public Lands Bank.
Mark Carney’s appointment as a special advisor to the Liberal Party, chairing the new Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth, is viewed in the context of the Prime Minister and Liberal Party’s efforts to regain traction on the political agenda.
With the NDP having called off the Confidence and Supply Agreement, the Liberals need new allegiances in the House of Commons on a case-by-case basis, which is expected to result in new commitments or trade-offs with either the NDP or Bloc Québécois to secure confidence pacts for key votes.
The ending of the Supply and Confidence Agreement marks a new window of opportunity for the Bloc, which has slipped in the polls according to the latest weekly update from Nanos Research. The Bloc Québécois is ready with a list of demands for the Liberal government, making it clear that their support will come at a high price. The Bloc’s strategy isn’t to rush into an election this fall as the Conservative’s might have hoped, instead they plan on utilizing their new-found leverage to influence government policies in the interest of Quebec. Just like in a game of chess, strategic positioning and assertiveness are crucial for this party. Without these elements, they risk being overshadowed by the prevailing political dynamics and could lose even more ground in the polls.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has kicked off a fierce offensive before parliament’s return, taunting the NDP Leader to trigger a “carbon tax election.” Having maintained a sizeable lead in public opinion polling, the Conservatives continue to advance the four-point policy platform to “axe the tax, fix the budget, stop the crime and build the homes.”
While Poilievre and the Conservatives appear election-ready, hoping for an earlier election date than the fixed date in October 2025, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are hoping to control more of the centre of the board this fall – no longer playing second fiddle. The Jagmeet Gambit is already paying off for the NDP’s coffers, with NDP national director Lucy Watson calling decision day “the best fundraising day by far in quite some time.” In the lead up to the next election, it’s expected that Singh will focus on core issues like healthcare, affordable housing, and a more robust social safety net, positioning the NDP as the party still fighting for everyday Canadians now that the Liberals have lost their queen’s protection. Strategically, Singh may make inroads to distance the NDP from the Liberals, casting the party as no longer Trudeau’s enabler, but rather the real champion for working families. The real test will be whether polling shifts in the NDP’s favour vote by vote—as with any minority government landscape.
With the upcoming by-elections, the NDP will also be angling to snatch key ridings in Manitoba and Quebec to frame themselves as the real progressive option. Singh’s fall strategy is clear: establish the NDP as the most credible voice for progressives while demonstrating that the party is ready to lead—not just criticize from the sidelines. This is a crucial period for the NDP to prove their independence and challenge the Liberals on their shortcomings, setting up a long-term play for greater influence in an election year.
What to watch for?
Thematically, this fall sitting will mark a return to traditional minority style politics andbalance of power, accompanied by an uptick in campaign-like announcements, fundraisers and press appearances as parties gear up for the next election.
There are several key events that will further set the stage over the next four months:
- Federal by-elections in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun and Elmwood—Transcona (Sept. 16)
- Foreign Interference Commission Public Hearings (Sept.- Oct.)
- Provincial elections: Saskatchewan (Oct.), New Brunswick (Oct. 21), British Columbia (Oct. 19)
- Fall Economic Update
- U.S. presidential election (Nov. 5)
NATIONAL will provide real-time updates and insights to our clients on any developments that could impact the political landscape leading to an election year. NATIONAL’s team of experts can help you to navigate through upcoming changes and political developments .
