Houston supersized: Progressive Conservatives achieve supermajority

In a historic victory, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), led by Premier Tim Houston, secured a commanding second term with 43 out of 55 seats, achieving supermajority status and bucking a global trend of voters rejecting incumbent leaders. The New Democratic Party (NDP) assumed the role of Official Opposition with 9 seats, while the Liberal Party saw a sharp decline in support, winning only 2 seats. One independent candidate was reelected.

What’s a supermajority?

A supermajority occurs when a government holds two thirds of the seats in the legislature, significantly more than the simple majority required to pass legislation. In Nova Scotia, this is 38 seats and it enables the Progressive Conservatives to govern with unprecedented stability and make procedural changes without requiring support from the opposition parties.

What we observed

• When you’re leading, you play it safe. The PCs ran a disciplined campaign focused on their health care accomplishments, and a pledge for more doctors, lower taxes, and higher wages for Nova Scotians. They did not let the opposition parties define them, nor did they let opposition claims go unchecked.
• There were some exciting firsts for the Nova Scotia legislature. Claudia Chender is the first woman elected as Leader of the Official Opposition, and new PC Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) Leah Martin is the first Mi’kmaq elected to the legislature.
• Nova Scotians gave the PCs credit for their progress on health care—and asked them to keep going.
• The PCs successfully capitalized on the unpopularity of Prime Minister Trudeau and his carbon tax, using it as a rationale to ask voters for a new, stronger mandate to ‘stand up to Ottawa’.
• Predictably, housing, health care, and affordability were key issues for voters. The NDP drove the housing conversation in the Halifax Regional Municipality, growing their base and assuming the role of Official Opposition.
• Momentum is powerful, and it goes both ways. While the PCs rode the blue wave to a supermajority, the Liberal Party found itself reduced to two seats, barely hanging on to official party status.

What happens next?

Transition

Over the next two weeks, Premier Houston’s transition team will make recommendations on the cabinet, committee, and staff appointments. They will review key public service positions and make changes to support the delivery of their commitments. We expect the cabinet to be announced within the next two weeks.

Claudia Chender’s NDP Party will welcome new members and assign shadow cabinet roles, and Liberal Leader Zach Churchill will announce his intentions following the recount of the Yarmouth results, where he is currently trailing the PC candidate by 14 votes.

Houston’s mandate: more, faster

We can expect the new government will move quickly on implementing their campaign promises. Here’s what to expect:

• Healthcare: Houston is expected to begin implementing his commitments such as establishing an internal travel nurse team, providing free parking at hospitals, implementing a no-cost shingles vaccine program for those 65 and older as well as establishing a Menopause Centre of Excellence. His government will also continue to work to ensure all Nova Scotians are attached to a primary care provider, address backlogs, and staffing challenges.
• Housing: We can expect to see changes to address affordable housing construction, support for renters and homebuyers, and address homelessness amongst the first initiatives to be put in place.
• Affordability: Tax credits, increasing the small business threshold, and implementing measures to stabilize utility costs will be imperative over the first few months of the new government.

What should you be thinking about?

Once the lawn signs have been removed and key decisions made by the transition team, the new cabinet will be briefed, and the government will focus on bringing their commitments to life through planning, a Speech from the Throne, and a spring budget.

In these early days, we encourage you to read the PC platform, keep an eye on cabinet appointments, and extend congratulations to your local MLA and thanks to all candidates for their hard work. We will be following developments closely and are here to provide counsel on how to successfully navigate the PC government as it enters its second term with a decisive mandate from Nova Scotians to "Make it Happen'.