THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Welcome back to Queen’s Park! After a four-month summer recess, members of provincial Parliament (MPPs) in Ontario are returning to the legislature with a renewed focus and set of priorities aimed at enhancing prosperity for all Ontarians.
A key highlight of the fall session is the presentation of the Fall Economic Statement by the governing party. This statement outlines the government’s financial commitments for the upcoming months and provides an overview of Ontario’s fiscal health.
Today at Queen’s Park, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy addressed the legislature to unveil this year’s Fall Economic Statement, Building for You: 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
The statement emphasized the Ford government’s commitment to alleviating the immediate financial burdens faced by Ontarians while also laying the groundwork to achieve longer-term objectives.
It also included a series of campaign-style announcements, fuelling speculation about an early provincial election. This follows the trend of several other provinces recently calling snap elections to get ahead of the federal government at the polls. An early election could be advantageous for the Ontario PC Party, as Premier Ford currently enjoys a 14-point lead, with projections suggesting he could maintain a majority government.
With the possibility of an early election looming, the Ford government is eager to accomplish as much as possible and win over Ontarians during this fall’s legislative session.
The financial update
Ontario’s 2024–25 deficit is projected to be $6.6 billion—an improvement of $3.2 billion from the outlook published in the 2024 Budget. Looking ahead, the government announced an anticipated deficit of $1.5 billion in 2025–26, with a surplus of close to $1 billion in 2026–27.
Minister Bethlenfalvy claimed Ontario’s economy has fared better than expected, and growth is anticipated to continue despite ongoing concerns around geopolitical factors and inflation rates.
Headline announcements
Reducing the financial burden for families
The government has announced plans to offer a $200 rebate to all eligible taxpayers in Ontario and their children, a move expected to cost the province $3 billion. Additionally, the government intends to propose an extension of the temporary gas and fuel tax cuts until June 30, 2025. Minister Bethlenfalvy emphasized that these measures are necessary to support families dealing with high interest rates and to mitigate the impact of the federal carbon tax. Historically, the Ford government's readiness to increase the deficit to address financial concerns has been an indicator of an impending election.
Creating jobs
The government outlined its continued commitment to growing the province’s economy and global competitiveness by attracting business opportunities. As part of this, the government announced it would allocate an additional $100 million to the Invest Ontario fund, a program that has attracted large investments in the province and creating jobs.
Connecting convenient care
Today, the government reiterated its recent announcement to support Ontario students becoming family doctors by expanding the Learn and Stay grant to include family medicine, with additional investments of $88 million starting in 2026. The government has introduced this measure in hopes of addressing the highly politicized primary care shortage.
The province is also requiring medical schools to prioritize seats for Ontario residents, helping ensure more doctors who study in the province stay in the province. This follows the federal government’s recent cuts to the number of permits for international students and indicates support for the immigration reform.
The statement also outlines the province's commitment to introducing a new tax credit and a $150 million investment to expand the Ontario Fertility Program, a measure that has the potential to triple the number of families able to receive publicly funded fertility treatment.
Further, the government announced it would invest an extra $10 million over five years to promote safe and responsible alcohol use, on top of $396 million allocated in the 2024 Budget. This investment follows the province’s recent move to widen the availability of beer, wine, cider, and coolers.
Building a stronger Ontario
The government reiterated its commitment to investing in infrastructure and community development. Measures to combat gridlock were outlined, including passing legislation to require municipalities to receive approval from the province before installing new bike lanes, moving forward with building the Bradford Bypass, and assessing the feasibility of constructing a transit tunnel expressway under Highway 401. These measures are sure to stress relationships with municipalities, including Toronto, who have differing approaches to minimizing gridlock.
Reactions and response
Opposition parties continue to express dissatisfaction with today’s announcements and the ongoing work of the government. NDP leader and leader of the Official Opposition, Marit Stiles, claims “Ontarians are still left waiting for real solutions.”
The leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, Bonnie Crombie, echoed Stiles’ sentiments and emphasized the need to support Ontarians through the affordability crisis and immediately addressing access to primary care.
Business and manufacturing associations were quick to highlight the benefits of today’s investments. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business commends the government for providing cost relief through the temporary gas and fuel tax cut and the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters described the statement as a bold commitment to grow Ontario’s manufacturing sector.
What does this mean for your organization?
Today’s Fall Economic Statement comes ahead of the 2025 Budget Consultation, scheduled to begin on November 14th. The consultation period kicks off the fall 2025 budget cycle, allowing Ontarians and stakeholders to provide the government with recommendations on priorities for the next year.
For more information on budget consultation participation, reach out to NATIONAL’s Toronto Public Affairs team.
