Federal Election 2021: The path to victory for each major party

Ottawa’s worse-kept secret is finally revealed. Indeed, after months of rumours and speculation, Canadians will head to the polls in September 2021, to decide who they want to see run the country in the aftermath of COVID-19.

The pandemic has completely tipped the balance of power in Canada: opposition parties were never truly able to take advantage of the minority parliament context; and in turn, the Liberals were able to rule Canada much like they did during their majority days.

From NATIONAL’s perspective, this election is the result of three key variables:

• A feeling that, from the perspective of the Liberal Party, that Canada’s pandemic response has been largely successful: The federal government has largely upheld the health, safety and financial security of Canadians, a success that the incumbent government hopes to parlay into a majority mandate.
• An increasingly toxic parliamentary environment: Relationships between caucuses have been acrimonious for the better part of a year.
• Most importantly, the Prime Minister and his party view the current timing of a federal campaign as ideal with respect to securing a majority government, given current national poll numbers. In short: triggering a campaign now could translate into a stable, four-year mandate for the Liberals.

NATIONAL’s pan-Canadian team has provided analysis on how each party enters the federal campaign with its share of goals, strengths, challenges and X-factors. The path to victory—and political relevance—will be different for each party over the next few weeks. And, like any election, at any level in Canada, the campaign itself matters, and leaders have the opportunity to improve their respective political fortunes.

Click the links to read our analysis:

• Liberal Party
• Conservative Party
• New Democratic Party
• Bloc Québécois
• Green Party
• People’s Party of Canada

NATIONAL’s market leading Public Affairs and Government Relations team provides frequent assessments of the campaign, along with analysis on regional issues; key policy areas; and ridings to watch across the country.

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