Decision 2025: With only days till election day, what’s at stake and what’s next?

The federal election has now entered the final stretch of the campaign. Over the past few days, all main parties have released their costed platforms, providing an overdue look into the full scope of spending promises, policy priorities, and as importantly, budget cuts needed to pay for new measures.

After months of uncertainty dominating the federal political agenda, election day will bring a welcome opportunity to fully engage the next government on issues that matter, a relief for corporate Canada and stakeholders alike.

In this article, NATIONAL discusses the campaign, party platforms and engaging the government through the transition process ahead.

Campaign recap

Despite little attention during the debates, U.S. President Trump has featured prominently in this federal election. Not only did the President’s so-called "Liberation Day" land during the second week of the campaign, but Liberals based their election platform and strategy on responding to the tariffs, with Carney repeatedly referring to it as the "most consequential vote of our lifetimes."

Even with the U.S. tensions and some notable campaign trail missteps, overall, it has been a subdued race. Party leaders have dutifully hit the hustings with daily announcements, often converging on policy themes of affordability, housing, and taxation, while focusing on vote-rich areas such as the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Montreal, and the Vancouver region.

While the Liberals turned around almost two years of poor performance in the polls with Mark Carney’s election as the party’s leader, their support has been drawn from the NDP and Bloc’s bases rather than away from Poilievre’s supporters, making the campaign a horse race between the two leaders.

Since becoming party leader, Mark Carney and the Liberals have experienced a surge in polling numbers. Throughout the campaign, most polls, like Nanos, Abacus and Leger have found the Liberals leading by a margin of 3-6 points. Notably, Mainstreet’s recent polling found the Conservatives leading with 42 percent to Carney’s 38 percent.

Polling numbers have fluctuated little during the campaign. Mark Carney's lead over the Conservatives has held since he took the reins of the Liberal Party, with polling aggregation projecting a Liberal majority. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois, the NDP, and the Green Party have suffered in polling throughout this election. The NDP and Bloc have consistently polled below 10 percent, with their supporters having shifted to the Liberals. Whether the NDP retains official party standing in this election is an issue to watch.

Throughout the election campaign, there has been a level of distrust in the polling numbers throughout the election campaign, particularly amongst Conservatives. Conservative polling numbers appear inconsistent with the high turnout at their rallies, leading some to suspect that the polls may not be fully capturing voter sentiment. Whether the Conservative leader still has time to turn voters to his cause before casting their votes will remain to be seen. Advance polling commenced on April 18, with Elections Canada reporting record volumes at voting stations.

Party positions on key issues

With only days till election day, all main parties have now released their full platforms. Across all party commitments and platforms, including during election debates on April 16 and 17, a few main themes have emerged this campaign. Below is a snapshot of the four main parties’ positions on these key issues.

Liberal Party—Canada Strong

• Deficit: The Liberal plan would add $225 billion to federal debt over 4 years.
• Affordability/Taxation/Housing: Create a crown corporation called Build Canada Homes (BCH), double the pace of home building, build 100,000 affordable homes in the next ten years, introduce a surtax on foreign buyers, and retrofit homes for energy efficiency. They also want to cut taxes for ‘hard-working’ Canadians, and protect social programs such as childcare, dental care, pharmacare, and school food programs.
• Climate and energy: Make Canada the world’s energy superpower, get clean energy projects built quickly across Canada, and kickstart the clean energy supply chain by investing in critical minerals.
• Trade: The Liberal plan promises to create a $2 billion Strategic Response Fund, build an “All-in-Canada” network for auto manufacturing and strengthen the Investment Canada Act.
• Defence: Strengthen the military by increasing existing defence spending by $18 billion to meet the two percent NATO spending target.

Conservative Party—Canada First. For a Change

• Deficit: The Conservative plan projects a $14.1 billion deficit by 2028-2029.
• Taxation and housing/affordability: The Conservatives' plan promises tax cuts for Canadians and incentives for homebuilding. They plan to sell off 6,000 federal buildings and thousands of acres of federal land to facilitate the construction of 2.3 million new homes.
• Climate and energy: The Conservatives promise to expedite energy projects with a National Energy Corridor, axe the industrial carbon tax, green light federal permits for the Ring of Fire, and implement a 20% Green Homes Tax Cedit for up to $20,000 for energy-saving renovations.
• Trade: To strengthen Canada's domestic economy, the Conservatives promise to cut taxes on Canadian-made cars and launch interprovincial free trade.
• Defence: The Conservative plan promises to secure the Arctic and the border by procuring new equipment, building a permanent Arctic military base, expanding CBSA patrol powers, hiring 2,000 new CBSA agents, and increasing border surveillance.

New Democratic Party—Made for People. Built for Canada.

• Deficit: The NDP’s plan would add $48 billion to the federal deficit over 4 years
• Affordability/Taxation/Housing: The NDP plan promises to launch universal pharmacare, cap prices on grocery essentials, and improve employment insurance. They propose a wealth tax on fortunes over $10 million, a surtax on massive corporate profits, and aim to build half a million affordable housing units in ten years.
• Climate and energy: The NDP plan includes cutting emissions and energy bills by retrofitting buildings and building a clean energy grid, and ending fossil fuel subsidies by 2026.
• Trade: The NDP platform promises to “deepen trade relations” with other countries and protect Canadian values and institutions.
• Defence: The NDP promises to implement a “Build Canadian, Buy Canadian” plan, hire thousands of new border officers and meet the NATO defence spending target by 2032.

Bloc Québécois—Choisir le Québec

• Affordability/Taxation/Housing: The Bloc Québécois proposes allowing Quebec to collect federal income taxes, increasing old-age pensions, increasing non-market housing to 20% through federal transfers, providing major assistance to first-time homebuyers.
• Climate and energy: The party plans to introduce a bill to protect Quebec's environmental sovereignty and jurisdictional primacy. They propose a non-regression law to ensure environmental laws can only be strengthened, a climate test for government decisions, and cutting all public aid to the oil and gas sector.
• Trade: The Bloc Québécois has called for a Quebec delegation in trade negotiations, and a federal softwood charter to protect the forestry industry.
• Defence: On defence, the Bloc Québécois has agreed to the target of 2% GDP spending on defence before the end of the next legislature, strengthen military and partnerships with NATO and European allies.

There are several similarities between the Liberal and Conservative platforms. Both parties promise tax cuts, homebuilding incentives, increased energy industry support, bolstered military spending, and strengthened trade within Canada and with non-U.S. allies. The Liberal, Conservative, and NDP platforms all include plans to increase housing supply, bolster the military, protect Canadian industries, and maintain Canada’s sovereignty. However, the parties differ in their approaches to key issues. The Liberal Party aims to make Canada a clean energy superpower and invest in critical minerals, while the Conservative Party plans to expedite energy projects, eliminate the industrial carbon tax, and offer a Green Homes Tax. On housing, the Liberals propose creating a crown corporation (Build Canada Homes) and retrofitting homes for energy efficiency, whereas the Conservatives plan to sell federal buildings and land for home construction. Regarding social programs, the Liberals promise to continue rolling out pharmacare, childcare, school lunch programs, and dental care, while the Conservatives pledge to preserve existing dental care coverage and honour current deals on childcare and pharmacare.

Finally, the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives differ on their plans for the national deficit, with the Liberal plan being the most costly.

Post-election priorities

Regardless of election outcomes, Canada’s next prime minister will have an intensive transition process ahead.

Considering the trade war with the U.S., NATIONAL anticipates the winning party will move rapidly to advance the steps in forming government, including swearing in a new cabinet and convening Parliament for a Throne Speech in the weeks ahead. Further, a budget is also likely to be tabled prior to the summer recess.

These steps will be seen as necessary to re-establish the normal operations of government and ready all federal powers to negotiate with the U.S. and implement domestic measures.

Following the election, NATIONAL is advising a focused and policy-based approach to engaging the new government as part of a ‘360 approach’ to government relations. Particularly at a time such as this, where this is significant competition for the political agenda and officials are briefing up. This can be as simple as thought leadership over LinkedIn, to securing op-eds in political media, to out-of-home marketing.

A part of this engagement, whether traditional government relations or a combined advocacy approach, NATIONAL advises seeking opportunities to align with the new government’s priorities, either through its campaign platform or throne speech. This will enable sooner engagement and potential for traction.

NATIONAL’s team of Public Affairs experts stands ready to support our clients in the execution of effective government relations plans.