It’s official—Canadians will head to the polls on April 28.
Only days into the campaign, coverage of this election is nearly impossible to avoid—as pundits, strategists and business leaders alike describe it as the most important campaign of our lives.
Despite the hallmarks of hyperbole, to say that this campaign is consequential is a mammoth understatement given the trade war triggered by the United States.
For months we have faced a jarring, unprovoked, and destabilizing series of actions by the White House that have thrown federal, provincial and municipal leaders to rethink how to protect Canada’s economy. Whether it’s brinkmanship, deliberate chaos, or the proverbial “flood the zone” strategy by the White House, this is what Canadians and our political leaders will face in the coming years. It’s our political new normal.
Let’s just not call it “strategic” on President Trump’s approach. It’s anything but. Nor is it based in a set of common facts, as we saw when the U.S. Threat Assessment made no mention of the President’s gaslighting on fentanyl “pouring” over the Canada-U.S. border. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard simply didn’t have an answer when pressed during a March 25, 2025 public hearing of the Senate Committee, despite the messaging from the White House over the past two months. Why? Because it’s pure fiction.
This type of misinformation—paired with the whipsaw approach on tariffs by the White House—underpins an existential threat to the Canadian economy. And by extension, it has now formed the ballot question for this election: which leader is better equipped to handle President Trump?
Whether this indeed is the ballot question remains to be seen. Five weeks can be a long time in politics, even if it’s considered a short campaign.
What is certain—whether the Liberals or the Conservatives win this election—is that Canadian businesses and political leaders must continue to adapt in real time. And how the party leaders react and position themselves accordingly will in large part determine who Canada’s next prime minister will be.
At the outset of this campaign, polling indicates a true horserace ahead between Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Léger and Mainstreet Research both find Liberals in the lead, compared with the Conservatives at 44 to 38 percent and 42 to 38 per cent respectively. In both polls, the NDP, Green Party, and Bloc Québécois all trail far behind under 10 points. Meanwhile, the latest Nanos poll emphasizes the tight race between the top two parties, with the Conservatives leading at 36.5 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34.1 per cent, a statistical tie.
In his short tenure as prime minister after winning the Liberal leadership campaign, Mark Carney made a number of swift, strategic moves providing insights into his priorities and platform ahead. In his leadership bid, Carney made sweeping economic promises, including balancing the books, increasing military spending, and improving efficiency.
On the eve of the election call, Prime Minister Carney met with the premiers to discuss internal trade, releasing a joint statement committing to strengthen the Canadian economy. This First Ministers statement was quickly followed by Carney’s “plan to build one strong Canada,” outlining numerous commitments to support workers, businesses, and develop a national trade corridor.
In addition to a major reset to the Liberal policy agenda, Mark Carney is recruiting new candidates to the party for the election, which will also help fill the 37 vacancies left by Liberal MPs not running this time around, which will undoubtedly bring new faces to the House of Commons.
Meanwhile the Conservative Leader is also putting forward a reset of sorts, with Carney having zero-rated the consumer carbon tax. Simply put: the “carbon tax election” that Pierre Poilievre called for is no longer relevant. With Prime Minister Trudeau now having departed Canada’s political stage, issues that drove the Conservatives to double digit leads in polls since 2023 have now shifted under the party’s feet.
Poilievre launched his campaign under the banner “Canada First—For A Change,” which manages to capture multiple ideas in one slogan: that the Conservatives are offering a leader that will put Canada first; by extension the previous Trudeau Government failed on this front; that it’s “high time” we did so as a country; and that his party is the only true vehicle for a needed shift in leadership to address critical issues facing the country.
How this resonates with voters in battle ground ridings remains to be seen. One thing, however, is certain: Mr. Poilievre is a highly effective communicator. Like Trudeau before him, his brand is the Conservative Party’s brand—the two are synonymous. And he has plenty of time to claw back the lead of the Liberals out of the gate in Election 2025, with the political skill to do so.
NATIONAL anticipates a fast-paced, highly political and highly disciplined campaign over the weeks ahead. With significant wildcard in what may emerge from the White House, particularly surrounding the next major milestone on April 2 for reciprocal tariffs, it is too early to speculate who may emerge in the lead at the end of this election.
Key dates
- April 2: tariff extension and reciprocal tariffs deadline
- April 7: final date for candidates to register
- April 9: full candidate roster available
- April 16: French election debate
- April 17: English election debate
- April 28: Election day
NATIONAL’s team of Public Affairs experts are maintaining an always on intelligence function to provide our clients with timely, strategic insights on the election developments that matter that matter for their businesses and targeted engagement opportunities ahead.
