Could B.C. go Conservative? BC United and Conservatives merge campaigns

On August 28, Kevin Falcon, leader of the BC United Party, British Columbia's Official Opposition, announced a significant move—suspending his party's campaign in the province's October 19 election and merging forces with the upstart BC Conservatives.

This significant and consequential shift in the election’s fundamental dynamics diminish the New Democratic Party's (NDP) odds of winning re-election.

Until recently the BC Conservatives (BCC) were a fringe offshoot of the newly formed BC United party. However, since the winter of 2024, the BCC has been steadily rising in support, with a recent poll putting the upstart BCC (founded after leader John Rustad left BC United in 2023) ahead of the incumbent BC NDP. A poll from Mainstreet Research put the BC Conservatives ahead of the BC NDP at 36 per cent of voting intention, with the BC NDP polling at 33 per cent, and BC United polling at 10 per cent. All of BCC’s poll support came at the expense of the BC United party. Falcon’s United party simply had no path to victory (donations to the BCU also dried up), and, in fact, would play the role of spoiler in the upcoming election because the NDP spreads its support throughout the province more efficiently. This “vote splitting” by the BCU and BCC would almost guarantee an NDP victory.

The now-united campaigns offered few details as to how this “merger” will go forward. Speaking to media during a planned press conference on August 28, Falcon said that BC United will work with the BC Conservatives to “field the strongest possible field of candidates” for each riding. Voters will now have a single right-of-centre choice when they receive their ballots in October. The incumbent NDP’s election strategy relied on a divided (or split) right-of-centre vote, but the BCU-BCC campaign merger requires a significant campaign recalibration. A two-way race between the NDP and the BCC will surely increase awareness of the election and voter interest in their electoral choices. In a tense political climate like this, strong voter interest rarely favours incumbents, especially with a protracted affordability crisis, rising unemployment, declining healthcare quality, and other voter frustrations.

What does this mean?

Any business or organization with an interest in British Columbia should prepare contingency plans if a change of government occurs, which is now a possibility. Campaigns matter, but the BCU-BCC campaign merger is significant enough to tilt the balance in favour of a party trending upwards. Given the significant policy differences between the NDP and the BCC, stakeholders should be prepared for change should a new government be formed. NATIONAL would expect major policy changes in the following areas:

• Healthcare (private delivery options)
• Public safety
• Mental health & addiction
• Energy & renewables (subsidies, regulations, licensing, and other contacts with government)
• Education and curriculum
• Provincial agencies, boards, and commissions
• Taxation and balanced budgets
• Housing and development policies
• Forestry
• Post-secondary funding models

What happens next?

Over the coming weeks, the BCU and BCC will undertake a process to build a full slate of candidates. NATIONAL expects the BCC’s policies will override BCU’s, which includes tax cuts, healthcare reforms, and significant expansion of natural resource development. We also expect a fully fleshed-out BCC platform in the early weeks of the campaign. This platform will likely be broad in scope and seek to reverse many of the policies implemented by the NDP. Make no mistake, this is a conservative party that will use whatever political power is made available to it by voters.

NATIONAL will continue to monitor the election through all stages and remains available to assist clients in interpreting all developments as we head towards October 19, 2024.