B.C. Election too close to call: Here's what you need to know

Election results will be finalized next week.

Despite a record-breaking turnout in early voting, the B.C. provincial general election saw a disappointing 57% voter turnout. Weather was a likely factor in depressing election day returns, which resulted in a projected minority government. The results are (mostly) in with several ridings still too close to call and awaiting the final count of 49,000 mail-in and out of district ballots before a formal decision can be rendered by Elections BC. The closest is Juan-De Fuca Malahat on Vancouver Island where just 23 votes currently have the BC NDP ahead of the BC Conservatives. Should one of these ridings flip to the Conservatives, the NDP’s potential minority government would be in jeopardy.

As of Monday, October 21 the BC NDP are leading or elected in 46 ridings, the BC Conservatives are leading or elected in 45 Ridings, and the BC Greens, whose leader Sonia Furstenau failed to secure her seat and lost to incumbent Grace Lore in Victoria-Beacon Hill, have secured two seats in the B.C. Legislature. It remains unclear what impact the absentee ballots will have on the final result. Given the number of uncounted ballots it could be substantial.

What does this mean?

The Legislature will look completely different when the Assembly first convenes to elect a speaker and swear in new MLAs, a significant portion of which have not yet held provincial public office.

Among the most prominent seats lost by the New Democrats were the ridings held by the Ministers of Land, Water and Resource Stewardship, Nathan Cullen, the Minister of Education, Rachna Singh, and the Minister of Agriculture, Pam Alexis.

What happens next?

We won’t know much until Elections BC concludes its official recounts and tallies the absentee ballots. Given the number of absentee ballots, we could see a shift towards a majority government for either the New Democrats or the Conservatives.

Assuming neither party receives a majority, both parties will make appeals to the Greens to form the next government. As the incumbent, Eby’s New Democrats will have the first opportunity to ask the Lieutenant Governor to form government. Next, comes the election of the Speaker. This is a necessary function and given the expected razor-thin margins in the Assembly and the discipline of the BC Conservatives, NATIONAL expects the New Democrats to put forward a member of their own caucus as a speaker. In such a scenario, the Assembly would likely become deadlocked for all intents and purposes. The role of the Speaker is to remain impartial on all matters, including votes. At 46-46, every vote on government legislation would result in a tie (defeated), and on matters of confidence (Throne Speech, Budget, financial bills) the speaker could opt to vote with the New Democrats but would be expected to provide an explanation. This scenario would quickly become untenable resulting in a snap election.

In Rustad’s election evening speech, he reinforced his intent to bring down the government as soon as possible. Due to these factors, NATIONAL expects the proverbial machine of government to grind to a halt and shift into “caretaker mode.” Advancing policy through cabinet will be limited and MLA attendance in the Assembly will be a significant challenge to manage.

The next few weeks and months will be a period of arrested development for stakeholders. NATIONAL will continue to monitor the evolving electoral situation and advise clients on major developments.