The next prime minister of Canada, whether Conservative or Liberal, will have their hands full during their first 150 days in office. Yes, there are a number of things like affordability, Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, and other urgent issues, but Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has made it known that she demands
quick action from the next federal government "or else."
The "or else" in question is clearly the threat of a national unity crisis, with Alberta at the centre of it. Voters on the prairies are cranky, and for good reason. There is a strong and legitimate feeling that the vital economic interests of Alberta and Saskatchewan have become easy targets for federal politicians in other parts of the country. These voters may have a point (given that the federal Liberals have been practically shut out of both provinces in the past two elections), and we can point to a number of significant pieces of federal legislation that were passed despite vocal opposition from premiers in those two provinces.
Bill C-69
The bill to enact the Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act came into force on June 21, 2019. The bill’s main goal was to significantly expand the scope of approval required for future energy infrastructure projects. The scope is so broad it was dubbed by Conservative premiers, provincial ministers and federal MPs as the "No more Pipelines Bill" because the threshold for approval was so high and risky for proponents.
Alberta eventually won the argument when the Supreme Court later ruled that the legislation was largely unconstitutional. Chief Justice Richard Wagner wrote that: "Parliament has plainly overstepped its constitutional competence in enacting this designated-projects scheme." In response, the Liberal government passed token amendments to the Act, but Alberta’s premier insisted the changes were unconstitutional and would likely pursue another court challenge. To date, not a single major energy project has been proposed, let alone approved under this new regime—some would say that was the point.
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has vowed to repeal C-69 should the Conservatives form next government. He claims that the current framework is stalling investments and puts Canada in a weak position towards the United States. On the other hand, when asked by journalists, Prime Minister Carney said he had no plan to repeal C-69.
C-48
The Oil Tanker Moratorium Act came into force on June 21, 2019. This legislation formalizes a crude oil tanker moratorium on the north coast of British Columbia (and only the north coast of British Columbia) and sets penalties for contravention of this moratorium. Jason Kenny, Alberta Premier at the time said C-48 is a "prejudicial attack" on Alberta that only targets one product: oil. He pledged to take the matter before the courts, but the pandemic and his own leadership troubles sidelined that plan.
Pierre Poilievre said that if elected, he would end C-48 so Canada "can build new pipelines and LNG terminals to export our energy overseas, ending our economic dependence on the United States."
Emission cap (or production cap?)
On November 9, 2024, the Canadian government published a proposed Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations, that would cap emissions from certain activities in the oil and gas sector. The final targets will not be set until 2026. However the Government estimates that this policy will reduce green house gases (GHG) emissions from the oil and gas sector by 35% in the early 2030s compared to 2019. The government says this new regulation is necessary to reach its net-zero emissions target by 2050.
The Alberta government makes the case that the emissions cap is a de facto production cap that would cause significant harm to the provincial economy. The province commissioned the Conference Board of Canada to assess the economic impact of this cap and found that it would reduce projected GDP growth by 11 per cent, employment by 4.1, and government revenues by 9.3. Real incomes would also be projected to decline by 7.3 per cent per person.
Despite these impacts, Mark Carney intends to maintain the emission cap if he becomes Prime Minister, saying, "I am focused on getting emissions down from the production and transportation of conventional oil and gas… Now there is a role for an emissions cap." Pierre Poilievre, however, commits to cancelling the emission cap, claiming it prevents growth in Canada.
Single-use plastic ban
The single use plastic ban was announced on October 7, 2020, as part of Environment Canada’s plan to reduce plastic waste. Items such as single-use checkout bags, cutlery, foodservice ware and straws were listed as toxic in the List of Toxic Substances under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Therefore, these products could no longer be manufactured, imported, sold or exported.
While this legislation is less detrimental than the perceived direct attacks on the province’s oil and gas sector, it remains another area of contention with the province insisting it violates provincial jurisdiction. Jobs and investment in the province will likely be lost, and the province will once again mount a constitutional challenge. Prime Minister Carney hasn’t spoken directly about this legislation (he’s likely to keep it in place), while Poilievre claimed that the plastic ban was "unreasonable, unscientific, and unconstitutional."
Again, Premier Smith is demanding that these four matters (and several others) be addressed by the next federal government within six months to "avoid an unprecedented nation unity crisis." Given the mood of her grassroots party members, it would be unwise to dismiss Premier Smith’s petitions to the rest of Canada as just the garden variety bellyaching we usually hear from Alberta. This past week, Premier Smith made another plea for her province saying, "I really hope we can get Team Canada on Team Alberta." When this election is finally settled, the response to Alberta’s ultimatum could prove fateful for the nation.
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