THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
Pre-election budgets are always the most revealing. We learn where incumbent governments think they’re weakest, where they think their political base resides, and how responsible they have been with taxpayer dollars. This political calculus will carry Alberta’s governing party to Election Day, which is legislated to occur on or before May 30, 2023. While finance ministers in other provinces horse trade with their cabinet colleagues to cobble something together that might resemble a balanced budget, Alberta’s Finance Minister, Travis Toews (who is likely to announce next week that he will not run for re-election), is unencumbered by those fiscal realities. Instead, Minister Toews enjoys billions in oil and gas royalty revenues, and that cash is burning a hole in the collective pockets of the Alberta government. Yes, money can buy you love and this budget should provide the United Conservative Party (UCP) with a modicum of momentum heading into a spring election that is still without an early frontrunner.
Overall, Budget 2023 presents a clear roadmap for a conservative government seeking re-election: continued economic growth, new capital projects, a “transformation” of healthcare, ongoing supports to lessen the impact of inflation, and more resources to enhance public safety—all of which is made possible by a sustained rebound in global oil prices and record-breaking production levels. And yet, the Alberta government appears to be pumping the proverbial brakes on big-ticket items like a provincial police force (still unpopular) and an Alberta pension plan (still very unpopular).
With a $2.4 billion surplus, this is a budget that remains cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook and appears willing to let market forces play out amidst “fears of a looming global recession.” It also avoids cuts to existing programs—something that always risks alienating potential voters—opting instead to make modest increases to existing ones. The additional investment of almost one billion dollars into healthcare operations will make it difficult for the New Democratic Party (NDP) to offer credible attacks given that this budget is the largest amount ever spent on healthcare in Alberta.
Polling shows that the top-of-mind issues for voters in the upcoming election are healthcare, affordability & the economy, and Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa. The NDP poll ahead of the UCP on healthcare, while the UCP poll strong on the economy, addressing affordability, and fighting Ottawa (a well-worn tactic with diminishing returns). With this budget, the fiscal ingredients are all there to make a strong case to Albertans for the UCP re-election. As always, campaigns matter, and this budget certainly puts the UCP on solid ground heading into the election. But it’s still a long way to Election Day.
