2024 presidential election—instructive of the changing landscape of U.S. politics?

In what is by any measure a remarkable comeback, Donald Trump will become America’s 47th President.

Just over two weeks ago, I pointed to several indicators why there was good reason to believe Trump could win, despite polls showing he was tied with Harris, or a bit behind. Trump ran on issues that resonated with voters: the impact of inflation, strengthening the economy, fixing the border. For many undecided voters, Harris avoided specifics on any of these. Her strategy seemed to focus on Trump as a person instead of communicating a clear set of policy ideas.

As it turned out, it was not a neck and neck race, at all, Trump’s strength proving higher than what pollsters captured. The Hispanic and Black vote dramatically increased for Trump. Blue-collar voters showed up for him. The realignment of voting blocks away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans continued full steam ahead with Harris falling short of Biden’s numbers from 2020.

A shift in the way candidates address voters

There will now be a lot of finger-pointing in Democrat circles about what went wrong. But one thing should be clear, a campaign based on getting rid of Trump, and little else, was a mistake.

The President-elect had been impeached twice, indicted four times, convicted on 34 felonies, survived two assassination attempts, was compared to fascist figures, and has known many more scandals, namely the January 6, 2021 event. In running against Trump as a person, Harris’ campaign relied on trying to create indignation in voters, while ignoring a growing cultural shift happening in American households. She could not make the public see her opponent as an unelectable person.

According to political analyst, Fareed Zakaria, non-college educated voters now make up the majority (65%) of the registered voter base which changes fundamentally how candidates must approach voters. Moving forward, this reality will figure more and more prominently in strategic considerations for political campaigns.

Today, the Democratic Party reflects on what could have been. Some would say that Democrat strategists bear the responsibility for the results. However, that should not take anything away from the strong campaign the former president, and soon to be next president, ran.

Like all previous winners, Trump’s messaging ultimately resonated the most amongst voters; he deserves the victory of this democratic election. While he was an imperfect messenger, he may well still win the popular vote along with Republicans regaining control of the Senate and very likely keeping the House. The polarization that has characterized American politics for the better part of the last decade has not been fruitful for either party and has brought instability to the country. The hope, now, is that both parties will work towards ending the use of this fractious and damaging political strategy.