NL election: Can money buy (electoral) happiness?

Riding a wave of pre-election spending announcements and a platform masquerading as a budget, Premier Dwight Ball has set May 16 as Newfoundland and Labrador’s date with electoral destiny.

Ball came into office needing to erase deficits by raising taxes and imposing fees, and leaves a budget flush with cash projecting a $1.9 billion surplus for 2019-20. That massive surplus is largely thanks to a renegotiated Atlantic Accord with the federal government, which will see $2.5 billion land in provincial coffers between now and 2056.

Interestingly, the Liberals have accounted for the entire $2.5 billion in this fiscal year, transforming a potential $500-plus million deficit into a major surplus. Finance Minister Tom Osborne says that’s standard accounting practice, but not surprisingly, opposition parties are crying foul.

Progressive Conservative leader Ches Crosbie and the NDP’s Alison Coffin both say the Liberals are playing politics with a budget that was introduced in the legislature but never debated. Crosbie says the proposed surplus is “not real money”, while Coffin called it “an artificial surplus”.

The most recent polling—Liberal 45%, PC 38%, NDP 16%—suggests Ball is in the driver’s seat as the campaign begins (though it should be noted, those numbers are almost two months old by now). Ball can also take some comfort in the fact that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are fans of stability—since Confederation, no government has lasted less than 12 years.

Of course, anything can—and often does—happen. An unexpected issue could happen during the campaign, but for now, expect the focus to remain on the Atlantic Accord funding, auto insurance rates (the highest in Atlantic Canada), and plans to keep power rates stable once energy starts flowing from the Muskrat Falls project.

For his part, PC leader Crosbie has taken early aim at health care spending, by far the largest line item in the budget. He is proposing creating a quasi-judicial body that would review and approve health spending decisions in a bid to reduce costs and improve outcomes.

NDP leader Coffin has only been party leader for a little over a month. In her response to the budget/platform, Coffin pointed to a lack of spending on rent subsidies, the need for greater increases to the minimum wage, and more focus on environmental issues.

Given Ball’s tumultuous first year as premier, when an austerity budget sparked protests across the province, being accused of free spending might seem like criticism worth taking. It will be up to Crosbie and Coffin to convince voters that spending is just smoke and mirrors.

As we move through the campaign, it will be interesting to see how the Liberals fare against two competing trends: the tendency in Newfoundland and Labrador for stable government, and, since the last federal election, a string of conservative victories in Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Alberta.

Which way will Newfoundland and Labrador go? Only time will tell.